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THE DISRUPTIVE THREAT TO TELECOM INFRASTRUCTURE SUPPLIERS
The telecom industry has changed significantly in the past decade. Although these changes have been mostly evolutionary in nature, the emergence of IP Multimedia Subsystems is creating an environment in which revolutionary shifts among vendor group share and influence are possible. In original TDM networks, traditional telecom infrastructure suppliers - also known as Network Equipment Providers, controlled the entire solution development and deployment chain, offering their own applications and integration services. Third-party applications were basically non-existent and carriers rarely developed in-house applications. Enabling Technology vendors played only a minor role. During the telecom downturn, major NEPs were forced to divest or outright close major groups within their organizations to cut operating expenses. This created new opportunities for several alternate supplier groups. Each of the following groups now play an important role in the developing telecom value chain: Systems Vendors - Vendors who offer complete solutions based on in-house products and/or repackaged products from other vendors. Systems Integrators - Integration and consulting firms that play a major role in developing and integrating Internet applications into business processes. This group includes some traditional network equipment provider integration divisions. Component Vendors - Vendors who specialize in one to two IMS network components that must be integrated/interworked with other vendors' equipment. 3rd-Party Application Developers - Media and entertainment groups, software firms, and individuals who develop niche applications, usually with the support of a larger ecosystem. This new IMS industry is comprised of a wide set of stakeholders with a number of strategic options. A clear IMS industry structure has yet to emerge. Ambiguity is likely to persist for several years as vendor business models are tested and carriers experiment with different deployment strategies. As part of VDC's ongoing IMS research, several scenarios have been identified and analyzed in which the aforementioned supplier groups could come to dominate the industry, both in terms of market share and technology leadership. According to Chad Hart, Director of VDC's Datacom/Telecom Practice, 'Early adopters of IMS products will need to wade through a variety of business models as vendors explore their options. Ultimately, this competition will be tumultuous to the IMS supply chain, creating tremendous opportunities for some stakeholders and leading to the demise of other groups. The results of this battle are to be determined.'
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